Should we be Using Predictive Analytics in Digital Infrastructure Development?

David Jones


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The Environmental Trade-off in Digital Infrastructure Development


Digital development presents a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it boosts productivity through remote work, AI, and automation, with the potential to lift billions out of poverty. Yet, at the same time, the rapid growth of infrastructure required to support these developments will need a corresponding growth in decarbonisation to avoid a climate catastrophe.


The German Advisory Council on Global Change highlights this contradiction: “uncontrolled digital change threatens to undermine the important foundations of our democracies” [1].


This article takes an in-depth look at how global institutions push the mantra of ‘digitisation’ as a developmental priority for nations while failing to adequately acknowledge the huge climate impact of this enterprise. This obscuring of consequences eases the way for a rapid extension of infrastructure that consumes billions of gallons of non-renewable resources annually.


In this article, I suggest that detailed modelling and forecasting are one of the major pillars needed to address this dichotomy. I will set out an approach and resources for modelling the digital demand to design a more predictive approach to digital infrastructure builds.


The Environmental Impact of a Data Explosion


The amount of data flowing over global digital infrastructure has exploded 300-fold over the last 10 years [2], with the next 20 years expected to see faster-paced growth on the back of the continued digitisation of life and entertainment, as well as from huge numbers of people in developing countries coming online for the first time.


This explosion is a good thing—the UN’s Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 9 aims to provide universal and affordable access to the internet by 2030 [3]. Access to the internet and digital services strongly correlates with improvements in education, healthcare and women’s empowerment.


As increasing numbers of people come online, and the scale of their data use grows, a variety of digital infrastructure will need to be built or scaled up if the digital ambitions of countries and trading blocks are to be realised.


Connectivity is one part of the solution—increased coverage of broadband, mobile and satellite will undoubtedly support these targets. But, ultimately, all that data traffic needs a destination point, in the form of data centres, which, unfortunately, require vast sums of power.


In the USA, data centres are expected to consume 380TWh of electricity by 2027 [4], almost 9% of the country’s total consumption. Ireland faces an even larger burden with digital infrastructure expected to consume 33% of the country’s total electricity by 2026 [5], and potentially 70% of the country’s electricity by 2030 [6].


Ireland and the USA have reliable national power grids, but this is not necessarily the case in developing countries. In Nigeria, data centres and mobile towers rely heavily on diesel generators, burning nearly a billion litres of diesel annually. This is a country where the average annual mobile data traffic per subscription is only 6GB per year [7], just over 0.1% of the average traffic from a UK subscriber.


To achieve universal internet access for a population that is estimated to cross the 300 million threshold by 2036 will require an exponential growth in digital infrastructure. If Nigeria remained dependent on diesel generators, and data consumption on a per-person basis reaches the UK’s level of data traffic, then the country would consume 9 trillion litres of diesel a year—over 100 times the amount of diesel consumed by the entire world in 2022 [8].


This single event would create a climate catastrophe—even if the UK, France, Germany, Spain and the Nordics reduced their CO2 emissions to zero, this would offset less than half of this increase. This is of course the worst-case scenario. Grid infrastructure has developed across West Africa and there are a multitude of projects which are building green energy infrastructure. But there has yet to be a major MNO, TowerCo or data centre company which has shown significant year-on-year reductions in emissions.


It is unjust to expect developing nations to slow down or halt their digitisation while developed countries reap the benefits of a digitised economy. Instead, alternative approaches to managing global emissions are needed. And this is where predictive analytics become a crucial tool for forecasting future demand. These tools and models will support the development of alternative strategies for power generation and implement methods to reduce emissions from digital infrastructure.


A predictive tool that models national network traffic growth and compares it to projected digital infrastructure expansion will help identify underserved areas early, enabling better planning of digital and power infrastructure. Early planning allows for the integration of renewable energy, natural cooling solutions, and partnerships with sustainability experts to reduce emissions.


Creating the Model: Traffic vs Digital Infrastructure


To address these challenges, David Jones, an Associate of Cambridge Management Consulting, has developed a comprehensive model that examines global internet traffic on a country-by-country basis and compares it to existing and planned digital infrastructure within those countries.


This model considers several factors:


  • Population Growth: Increasing numbers of internet users

  • Economic Growth: Rising wealth levels leading to more internet usage

  • Internet Penetration: A growing proportion of each country’s population getting online

  • Usage Patterns: Moving towards video transmission over the internet significantly increasing traffic

  • B2B and M2M Traffic: Business-to-business and machine-to-machine Internet traffic growth


This model projects internet traffic growth over the next 20 years, if data traffic growth follows a logarithmic curve, increasing at a decreasing rate. In Germany and other developed nations, the rate of traffic growth slows once it reaches a certain threshold, as there is a natural limit to how much HD video a person can consume. By comparing these projections with a database of over 10,000 data centres, including locations and power consumption, it is possible to identify regions with underdeveloped or overdeveloped digital infrastructure.


Note: This model does not account for the growth in generative AI, which adds further demand on a strained digital infrastructure. For more information on this subject, see our recent article: Building an AI-ready infrastructure.


Initial Results


When we run this model and compare countries, what immediately becomes clear is the difference in scale between the growth of digital infrastructure and internet traffic. Ireland’s digital infrastructure is increasing at a rate faster than its internet traffic, while in countries like Bangladesh and Algeria internet usage is growing ten times faster than the digital infrastructure that supports it.


David has modelled 76 countries and will be completing another 50 over the next few months. So far, the CAGR of internet traffic is around 30%, and the CAGR of data centres is around 12%.


What’s clear from this graph is how the difference in growth rates compounds over time, and that as the years progress the gap between traffic and infrastructure widens. This shows that over time the availability of infrastructure will become a massive limiting factor to digital experience. Eventually, the lack of adequate infrastructure may even prevent citizens from accessing essential internet services.

Country Spotlight: Kazakhstan


The early modelling highlights several of the usual suspects in terms of investment in digital infrastructure. Turkey, Saudi Arabia and China all feature highly on the ranking of locations where internet traffic outpaces digital infrastructure.


Kazakhstan is often not included in this categorisation—however, as shown by the diagram below, it should be given far greater consideration.

In the next ten years, the mobile data consumed by the average Kazakh will grow by 600% from 200GB to 1200GB, with fixed data increasing 400%. This is against a backdrop of limited investment in their data centre capacity.


There are many factors to analyse when looking at digital infrastructure including power availability, ease of doing business, international connectivity, borrowing costs and macro-economic forecasts. This analysis indicates that there will be a growing unmet demand for digital infrastructure in Kazakhstan. By starting the planning process now, we can use more environmentally friendly methods to power and cool data centres, instead of waiting until the demand becomes critical and building data centres becomes reliant on fossil fuels.


The Trade-off: Speed vs Sustainability


At its core, the process of finding, designing and building a data centre is intensely time-consuming. A single-tenant data centre takes on average 18 months to go through planning, engineering, construction and commissioning phases [9]. Given a significant increase in demand, this puts many data centre projects under intense time pressure.


These time constraints lead to organisations making decisions that prioritise speed of completion over emissions generation. Using diesel generators for power, buying existing buildings and retrofitting them and location selection are all decisions made to prioritise the speed of completion.


This time pressure limits the ability of design teams to engage with alternative strategies for power reduction and the maximisation of renewable resources. This is not to say that firms don’t consider energy and environmental impacts, but they are usually a low priority.


Some of the key trade-offs surround building design: old, retrofitted buildings aren’t usually designed to maximise airflow and are harder to modify to increase ventilation. They are also unlikely to maximise the cooling benefits that occur from subterraneous data centres, with a recent study estimating that this could result in a 60% reduction in power consumption. Tesla’s new gigafactory highlights advantages of advanced planning. The company claims that the use of liquid cooling has achieved an 89% reduction in energy consumption at their 130MW data centre. [10]


A Predictive Approach to Design


David’s model also predicts other factors that can inform the approach to design and planning:


  1. Unmet demand in digital infrastructure capacity

  2. Turning points when a nation’s digital infrastructure becomes unviable for the traffic it needs to support

  3. Opportunity spaces for additional infrastructure development


Predictive demand modelling enables advanced planning because it provides more time to design the best solutions for future needs. This approach can reduce data centre power consumption by up to 90% through optimised design and strategic resource allocation.


By forecasting future internet traffic and infrastructure requirements, companies can strategically find data centres near renewable energy sources, cutting reliance on fossil fuels. Integrating energy-efficient technologies, such as advanced cooling systems and high-efficiency hardware from the outset, ensures lower electricity usage throughout the data centres’ lifecycle.


Additionally, advanced planning enables data centres to play a crucial role in reducing community emissions. By implementing innovative solutions like those used by Deep Green data centres (see our press release about our partnership with Deep Green), waste heat generated by servers can be repurposed to provide heating for nearby communities. This reduces the carbon footprint and provides sustainable heating, providing the use case for a symbiotic relationship between digital infrastructure and environmental stewardship.


The Next Stage of our Model


We are about to cross a Rubicon, and it is essential that the connection between digital infrastructure and emissions permeates into the global consciousness. This will be necessary for the kind of public pressure required to move governments on these issues.


Cambridge Management Consulting is focused on improving the quality of decisions that infrastructure firms make, finding unmet opportunity spaces and working with organisations to make key infrastructure decisions.


As David evolves his model to include local power availability, subsea cable offload points, ease of doing business scores and real estate costs, the level of granularity will increase, and we will bring the model to bear at a city-level as well as a country level.


Along with this, we will work with digital infrastructure companies, investment vehicles, telecommunications firms and power companies to embed modelling solutions to their infrastructure planning.


Cambridge Management Consulting


Cambridge Management Consulting (Cambridge MC) is an international consulting firm that helps companies of all sizes have a better impact on the world. Founded in Cambridge, UK, initially to help the start-up community, Cambridge MC has grown to over 160 consultants working on projects in 22 countries. Our capabilities focus on supporting the private and public sector with their people, process and digital technology challenges.


What makes Cambridge Management Consulting unique is that it doesn’t employ consultants—only senior executives with real industry or government experience and the skills to advise their clients from a place of true credibility. Our team strives to have a highly positive impact on all the organisations they serve. We are confident there is no business or enterprise that we cannot help transform for the better.


Cambridge Management Consulting has offices or legal entities in Cambridge, London, New York, Paris, Dubai, Tel Aviv, Singapore and Helsinki, with further expansion planned in future. 


If anyone is interested in using David's model or has further questions, please reach out at djones@cambridgemc.com or use the contact form below.


Find out more about our data centre services.


Find out more about our sustainability services.

Footnotes


[1]
https://issuu.com/wbgu/docs/wbgu_fs1-2019_en?fr=sODZiZTM4MDU3Mg


[2]
https://www.ericsson.com/en/reports-and-papers/mobility-report/dataforecasts/mobile-traffic-forecast?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAjwvvmzBhA2EiwAtHVrbypuKnOSS1k1w2hFZ6FmRjDmU0pj08f1mD4ENPkn7_ytu4s2fvcO5RoCFYQQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds


[3]
https://www.un.org/techenvoy/content/global-connectivity


[4]
https://www.aresmgmt.com/sites/default/files/2024-06/Digital-Convergence-Green-Paper_June-2024.pdf


[5]
https://dcnnmagazine.com/data-centres/data-centres-in-ireland-to-consume-one-third-of-electricity-by-2026-schneider-electric-responds/


[6]
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/data-centres-could-use-70-of-ireland-s-electricity-by-2030-committee-to-hear-1.4685589


[7]
https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Dashboards/Pages/Digital-Development.aspx


[8]
https://www.procurementresource.com/blog/industrialisation-and-growth-in-population-is-driving-the-global-diesel-market


[9]
https://www.juniper.net/us/en/forms/2024/top-5-data-center-trends-for-2024.html?utm_medium=sem&utm_source=google&utm_campaign=EMEA_ALL_Stein_Paid_Media&utm_content=Misc_d_emea_uk_asdc_nonbranded_crdc_en&utm_term=building%20your%20own%20data%20centerpc_696026707333&utm_gclid=CjwKCAjwnK60BhA9EiwAmpHZw3fmFXA32neb9LHKzIURuHV1AXgJAA-5cUlrtnA3CDndZDR1a1dXFxoCLzgQAvD_BwE&gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAjwnK60BhA9EiwAmpHZw3fmFXA32neb9LHKzIURuHV1AXgJAA-5cUlrtnA3CDndZDR1a1dXFxoCLzgQAvD_BwE


[10]
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/elon-musks-liquid-cooled-gigafactory-data-centers-get-a-plug-from-supermicro-ceo-tesla-and-xais-new-supercomputers-will-have-350000-nvidia-gpus-both-will-be-online-within-months


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A heath-covered bay on the Falkland Islands
by BFBS 14 June 2025
To acknowledge and celebrate the end of the Falklands war on 14 June 1982, we are publishing this story about the unlikely friendship of two amateur radio enthusiasts 8,000 miles apart that allowed more than 50 soldiers the opportunity to get messages home to their loved ones. Disclaimer: This story was originally brought to light by bfbs Forces News on 7 December 2022. Certain linguistic changes have been made in the subsequent article from Cambridge Management Consulting, but all of the information comes from the original article, written by Hannah King Ros Moore, which you can read here , and an accompanying video on their YouTube page, which we encourage you to watch . Between April and June 1982, Argentina and the United Kingdom engaged in a 10-week conflict which would come to be known as the Falklands War. Battling over the sovereignty of the Falkland Islands and its territorial dependency, South Georgia and the South Sandwich Islands, the conflict began with the invasion of the former by Argentina on 2 April, and ended with their ultimate surrender on 14 June – Falklands Liberation Day. During this time, more than 100 villagers were being held captive in a hall by the Argentinians for almost seven weeks, before being free on 29 May by 2 PARA, following a battle to take Goose Green. Eighteen British soldiers were sadly lost during this fight, but back at home their families had heard nothing since the soldiers set sail. That was until the unlikely friendship of two amateur radio enthusiasts 8,000 miles apart allowed more than 50 soldiers the opportunity to get messages home to their loved ones. Bob McLeod, a ham radio operator, had already made history by making the announcement to the world that the Falkland Islands had been invaded. However, in doing so, he had also drawn the attention of the Argentinians, who were quick to confiscate his equipment. Alan Bullock was the Forward Observation Officer of D Company, 2 PARA, and, while walking through the main street of Goose Green, spotted an antenna on a house belonging to Bob. Alan knocked on Bob’s door, “Hello… is there any chance you are a radio amateur?” “Yes… But the Argentinians took my transmitter and smashed it up.” Bob’s wife then suggested that they use his 50W amplifier that was safely hidden under the stairs. As Forward Observation Officer, Alan had his state-of-the-art at the time, military clansman radio, which, although only 20 watts for communicating over short distances, could be combined. In order to get messages back to the UK, Bob made contact with John Wright, a radio amateur in Oxford with whom he had been chatting to over the airwaves for many years. Together, Bob and John devised a cryptic code for their conversation and each transmitted on different frequencies, in case anyone was listening. John would be given a soldier’s phone number and short messages to pass on to his family. John said of the plan: “Normally amateur radio enthusiasts talk about their radio equipment, experiments they’re doing. “In this case, the communication was to pass family traffic which, under normal circumstances, isn’t allowed, but I threw caution to the wind and did what I could as quickly and clandestinely as possible.” Word quickly got around the troops and soon it wasn’t just D Company’s families Bob and John were contacting. Before long, there was a queue outside Bob’s door, with each message always the same: "I am safe." About BFBS BFBS is a pioneering military charity with a mission to entertain, inform, connect and champion the UK armed forces, their families and veterans. Our armed forces do a tough yet invaluable job, often working in extreme conditions – so BFBS believes they deserve our unfailing support. Find out more at: https://about.bfbs.com/ The Positive Impact of Telecommunications This story, and the combined initiative, intuition, and innovation between Allan Bullock, Bob McLeod and his wife, and John Wright, is testament to the transformative power of technology for forging connection and bringing optimism at times of difficulty, danger, and otherwise disconnect. This story is particularly inspiring for Cambridge Management Consulting as an organisation currently working hard to enhance the telecommunications and technology infrastructure of the Falkland Islands. For more information about how we are achieving this, you can read about our consultancy work on the Islands here , and the opening of Falklands IT here .
Orange and white spotlights on a purple stage
by Jon Wilton 6 June 2025
Welcoming Simon Crimp Cambridge Management Consulting is delighted to welcome Simon Crimp as Managing Partner and Lead for our Digital Transformation practice. With more than 25 years of international technology leadership, Simon joins us at a pivotal moment as our clients seeking to drive meaningful change across their portfolios. His extensive experience spans hands-on technology operation and engineering, setting global technology strategy, and C-suite advisory, positioning him as a powerful asset for businesses navigating the next wave of digital innovation. Simon began his career in the demanding world of capital-markets technology, supporting trading floors at JP Morgan and managing service delivery across major exchanges. This early immersion laid the groundwork for a deep technical understanding and an ability to deliver resilient, high-availability systems in some of the world’s most high-pressure environments. His next chapter at Euronext LIFFE (now part of ICE Futures Europe) saw him rise through the ranks from service management to become Global Head of Systems Engineering. There, he was instrumental in delivering two state-of-the-art data centres and modern trading infrastructure, ensuring the reliability and resilience required by global financial markets. The next decade of Simon’s career took him to IG Group, where he led the transformation of infrastructure and operations on a global scale. As Head of Infrastructure & Operations and later Regional CTO and Global Head of Shared Technology Services, Simon architected IG’s pioneering hybrid cloud strategy, orchestrating seamless integration across AWS, Google Cloud, and multiple colocation facilities. He didn’t just modernise technology, he reshaped how teams operated, leading over 400 technologists across regions, managing a significant budget, and redesigning operating models to accelerate delivery while enhancing security and compliance. Notably, Simon developed IGs Security Operations and Cyber Defence function, further strengthening the company’s posture in a fast-evolving threat landscape. His versatility was clear during his tenure as Interim CEO and Head of the Japan Office, where he secured C-level buy-in for localisation and expansion into new markets. Before leaving IG in 2024 Simon developed the Data Strategy for the company and led build out of the Data and AI capability into GCP. Beyond his technical and commercial expertise, Simon has invested in leadership development, qualifying as an Executive Coach at Henley Business School. This enables him to drive not only digital transformation, but the cultural shifts essential for lasting impact. This helps organisations embed agile, product-focused ways of working alongside technology renewal. Reflecting on his decision to join Cambridge Management Consulting, Simon shares: “I’m really excited to get the opportunity to take 25 years of technology and organisational transformation across Finiancial Services and Fintech into new industries and markets. Cambridge MC has had great success since opening its doors, and I’m thrilled to be part of the leadership team that will drive the next phase of growth.” In this new role he will lead end-to-end digital transformation programmes — from initial vision and business case to execution and ongoing improvement. He will focus on orchestrating cloud-first, data and AI strategies, embedding modern operating models, guiding post-merger technology integration, and advising boards on security, compliance, and the adoption of emerging technologies. Whether your organisation is looking to modernise legacy estates, scale digital operations globally, or embed new ways of working, Simon Crimp and the Cambridge Management Consulting team are ready to help drive value at any stage of the programme. To connect with Simon and explore how he can support your digital transformation journey, reach out to us at info@cambridgemc.com or scrimp@cambridgemc.com
Murky gloom under the sea with light rays piercing from above
by Andy Everest 28 May 2025
Introduction In today's interconnected world, submarine cable networks form the backbone of global communication, enabling the seamless exchange of data across continents. While these undersea cables are the epitome of engineering marvels, their effectiveness hinges not only on the ‘wet' network in the seabed, but also on the often-overlooked terrestrial network backhaul. The terrestrial backhaul — the infrastructure that connects submarine cable landing stations to inland data centres and networks — is as crucial as the submarine network itself. Proper management and handling of terrestrial backhaul partners is essential to ensure the optimal performance, cost-efficiency, and security of all submarine networks. The Vital Importance of Backhaul Management Submarine networks are only as strong as their weakest link, and the terrestrial backhaul is a pivotal link in this ecosystem. Without a well-designed and managed backhaul, even the most sophisticated submarine network can face inefficiencies, bottlenecks, and vulnerabilities.  Key reasons why managing terrestrial network backhaul partners is so critical include: Cost Optimisation Terrestrial backhaul costs constitute a significant portion of the total network expenditure. Poorly negotiated contracts or suboptimal supplier relationships can inflate operational costs, diminishing the overall profitability of submarine networks. Network Performance The design, quality, and reliability of terrestrial backhaul networks directly affect latency, throughput, and overall user experience. A poorly managed partner ecosystem can lead to performance degradation, affecting service delivery. Security and Risk Mitigation The terrestrial segment is often more vulnerable to physical and cyber threats compared to submarine cables. Effective partner management ensures that security measures are prioritised, and risks are mitigated. Scalability and Flexibility As data demands grow, submarine networks must scale effectively. Well-managed terrestrial backhaul partners enable seamless scaling and adaptability to meet changing requirements.
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