Staying ahead of the curve in a fierce market Our client, a renowned global services provider, approached Cambridge Management Consulting (Cambridge MC) with a critical mission: to benchmark their data connectivity services against industry best practices, identify growth opportunities, and develop an innovative growth strategy. Their objective was to stay ahead of the curve in a rapidly evolving market and solidify their position as a leader in data connectivity solutions globally. The Challenge The client faced significant challenges: Decline in Traditional Voice Services: As the market shifted towards IP-based solutions, traditional voice services were becoming less profitable. Revenue vs. Margin Dilemma: Although data connectivity services were growing in revenue, they yielded lower margins compared to voice services. This trend was impacting overall profitability negatively. Future-readiness of Existing Offerings: The client's current portfolio, while performing adequately, required evaluation to ensure alignment with modern standards and preparedness for future market demands. The client sought actionable insights to enhance their portfolio and capitalise on emerging market opportunities. Cambridge MC was tasked with: Diagnosing the data connectivity services business to benchmark against industry best practices Identifying and prioritising growth opportunities Developing a comprehensive growth strategy aimed at achieving revenue and margin targets Building a set of initiatives with detailed programs and supporting action plans to deliver the growth strategy Our Approach - Diagnostic Phase In the diagnostic phase, Cambridge MC applied its comprehensive Diagnostic Framework to assess the client's organisation across several key parameters: Portfolio Analysis: Evaluating the range and performance of existing products and services Go-to-Market Strategy: Reviewing current market entry strategies and sales approaches Systems & Processes: Assessing internal systems for efficiency and scalability Network Technologies: Analysing the technological infrastructure supporting data connectivity services Product Margins: Examining financial performance metrics for each product line. This involved: Conducting in-depth interviews with key team members Reviewing essential documentation, strategic plans, market reports, and financial statements Performing detailed market, customer, and competitor analysis Utilising Cambridge Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to benchmark the client against industry Best-in-Class standards Our Approach - Growth Opportunity Phase In this phase, Cambridge MC facilitated: Co-Creation Workshops: Collaborative sessions with the client team to identify and prioritise potential growth opportunities Stress Testing: Rigorous financial analysis involving SMEs and customer feedback to validate identified opportunities Initiative Scoping: Detailed workshops to scope out, quantify, and agree on key initiatives necessary for realising growth opportunities. The culmination of this phase was the development of an agreed-upon growth strategy underpinned by robust financial projections and a detailed delivery plan. Outcomes & Results Through this structured approach, Cambridge MC successfully identified several key improvement areas resulting in: 1. Gross Margin A project ed 66% increase in gross margin. 2. Recurring Revenue An incremental annual recurring revenue of $90 million by year five. These results provided the client with a clear roadmap for enhanced profitability and sustained competitive advantage in the dynamic data connectivity market. 

Replacing microwave connectivity with fibre optic links to provide reliable internet during adverse weather as well as laying the foundations for a digital future In April 2023, the Turks and Caicos Telecommunications Commission (TCITC) completed a Request for Proposals for a study on the feasibility of a domestic submarine telecommunications cable system for the Turks & Caicos Islands (TCI). Originating from a 2016 Turks and Caicos Islands Government mandate to enhance inter-island communication, the initiative aimed to establish a national fibre ring, ensuring robust connectivity—especially during natural disasters—as well as facilitating a secondary international broadband link. In 2023, Cambridge Management Consulting Limited was awarded a contract to prepare the final Strategic Outline Business Case (SOBC), involving consultations and with local stakeholders. The Challenge T he primary objectives of the project include replacing the current microwave links with high-capacity fibre optic cables, ensuring resilient connectivity in adverse weather, offering low latency digital access to underserved TCI communities, and laying the groundwork for further digital investments. Subsea cables, being the internet's backbone, are crucial for island nations, offering superior capacity and latency compared to alternatives like satellite or microwave connections. High-speed internet is crucially important to economic growth across the islands. Tourism and local businesses require reliable and fast service to meet the growing needs of users. Hospitals, ports, and emergency services will also benefit greatly from new digital services—for example, 20% of patients in TCI already use remote doctor appointments. Our Approach The project started by analysing the telecommunications market in the Turks and Caicos Islands. As with many of the other Caribbean Islands, the market data is not readily available. Market information was gathered from a wide range of sources, including official statistics, third-party databases, market data sources, and by conducting meetings with the local stakeholders, including cruise lines, telecom operators and others. Our legal partner in the project, Baker Botts, also conducted a legal review of the regulatory framework, procurement framework, and government financing framework. Ensuring open access to the new subsea cable system and related facilities was emphasised in carrying out this legal review and recommendations from that review. Our technical partner in the project, Pelagian, conducted a desktop study, which is always the basis of any subsea cable system, assessing cable landings, environmental aspects, developing a cable route that would be used to perform marine survey activities and further into the project, the cable installation. This was done by following recommendations from the International Cable Protection Committee to ensure the quality of the study. After the reviews and studies, we created a financial plan for the cable system, including estimated investments, profit and loss calculations, cashflow analysis, and balance sheets. This was followed by writing a Strategic Outline Business Case report, which was based on the UK Government’s Green Book guidelines. The Team Our Senior Partner for Subsea, Aki Uljas, led our contribution to the project, providing his subsea expertise and understanding of government-led projects, based on his previous work—including work with the Finnish Government-owned company Cinia, which he has been advising for the Baltic Sea and Arctic cable projects. Julian Rawle has two decades of experience in the subsea and telecommunications industry, specialising in market analysis, market forecasts and due diligence work. The Cambridge MC team worked alongside the Turks & Caicos Islands Telecommunications Commission (TCITC), specifically with Kenva Williams, Director General, to ensure an effective outcome that benefits all TCI citizens. Outcomes & Results After we completed the Strategic Outline Business Case report, we presented it to the Turks and Caicos Islands Cabinet and the UK Governor of the Turks and Caicos Islands. 1. Strategic Outline Business Report The Strategic Outline Business Case report was delivered in Autumn 2023. Cambridge MC presented the business case to the Cabinet in December 2023, after which the Cabinet approved the project to move forward. 2. Procurement Package Cambridge MC and Pelagian started to work on the Procurement Package and the upcoming tender process in April 2024, after budget allocation for the project was completed. 3. Cable System Extensions We also identified a few possible new international cable systems passing close to the Turks and Caicos Islands, which could have the potential to be extended into the islands: Several potential planned cable systems were identified Cambridge MC reached out to these parties and facilitated discussion and negotiations on behalf of the Turks and Caicos Telecommunications Commission Cambridge MC revised the Strategic Outline Business Case to also include these potential new cable systems to be connected to the islands. 

Analysing the business to provide recommendations and enhancements The satellite industry is going through an intense period of transformation at every level of the value chain. The status quo within the satellite communications industry has been largely unchanged and unchallenged since its inception over 60 years ago. This is all about to significantly change, and it will force many established businesses to look afresh at how they operate. Many will adapt but many will fail. The two key factors driving this transformation are a) the emergence of Non-Geostationary Satellite Operators (NGSO) and b) the technology drive to digitisation, standardisation, and virtualisation. New market entrants such as Starlink are hugely disruptive and have contributed to a 77% reduction in satellite capacity pricing over the last 5 years. Other new entrants will soon emerge, creating further disruption to the norm and downward price pressure. The Challenge A leading satellite communications service provider had already anticipated this market shift and transformation, but wanted to undertake a brief study to validate their assumptions and to review their Go-To-Market strategy. Spanning operations in the US and Europe, Steve Tunnicliffe was tasked with undertaking this strategic business review that included: Stakeholder Mapping and Engagement Corporate Governance Review Change Management and Communication Revenue Review Performance Management Review Our Approach Steve provided critical insights and enabling methodologies to support the service provider in anticipating where to invest next and what resources to align where. Steve also identified areas of weakness within the company’s corporate governance and identified where changes needed to be made to ensure the service provider seized the opportunity for its next phase of growth. He was able to engage key stakeholders in the identification of business issues and make recommendations on how and what to implement from a change management perspective. His experience in leading a global sales organisation and strategy for a leading player within the satellite industry helped provide critical insights to empower the service provider to achieve its stated objectives. Out comes & Results 1. Go-to-Market Strategy The client refocused its efforts on Defence and Government, which accounted for over 50% of its business but an event greater percentage of its profit. 2. Corporate Governance The client put in place a charter and clear definitions around the role of the Board of Directors and the Executive Management Team defining what matters were reserved for each. 3. Efficiency All of this provided not only the necessary clarity but an efficient plan to implement.

Press Release: 18/12/2024, London – Cambridge Management Consulting (Cambridge MC), a global management consulting firm known for its expertise in telecommunications, and the Trustmarque Group (Trustmarque), a technology solutions provider with deep expertise in Public Sector expertise, have announced a strategic partnership to support local government authorities across the UK to manage the transition from the Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN) to digital communications, ensuring a smooth and efficient switchover by January 2027. Trustmarque’s Public Sector division was recently named Public Sector Partner of the Year by CRN. They work with local authorities across the country, and will now work closely with Cambridge MC to offer a turnkey PSTN upgrade solution, ensuring that they are ready for the switchover. Through this partnership, Cambridge MC and Trustmarque will augment each other’s technological expertise to provide a complete service wrap for their current and future customers. Specifically, Cambridge MC will bring their consulting success and understanding of the public sector and its unique challenges concerned with the PSTN Switch Off. Trustmarque will bring their deep understanding of the digital solutions required to address the PSTN challenges. Together, this collaboration will provide customers with a holistic strategy toward this transition, including advice, resources and hands-on experience. Commenting on the news, Simon Williams, Chief Executive Officer at the Trustmarque Group said: “I am delighted to announce the collaboration agreement between Cambridge MC and the Trustmarque Group. Together we are committed to empowering local authorities to embrace this transformation with confidence and ensure uninterrupted service delivery to their communities. Cambridge MC’s consultants bring with them decades of telephony expertise.” Tim Passingham, Founder and Chairman of Cambridge Management Consulting, added: “I am very excited to be working with Trustmarque to ensure a seamless transition following the PSTN Switch Off. The switch to digital communications requires expert oversight, and Trustmarque’s technological expertise makes it well equipped to support this move.” Craig Cheney, former Deputy Mayor of Bristol and Managing Partner at Cambridge Management Consulting, said: "The PSTN shutdown presents huge risks to local authorities, universities, the NHS and across the public sector. Making sure you have the right strategy to get the right solutions into the right places at the right time is urgent and vital and could have ramifications across life and limb services as well as implications for traffic control, smoke and fire alarms and much more." What is the PSTN Switch Off? By the end of January 2027, Openreach will undertake a significant transformation in communications by closing the Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN). Consequently, any PSTN-based products currently utilised by your business will require modification. The PSTN infrastructure supports not only traditional landlines but also voice services. Additionally, widely available broadband services, including fibre-to-the-cabinet (FTTC) and standard broadband (ADSL), are dependent on the PSTN. Craig Cheney , Managing Partner for Public Sector & Education, recently discussed the implications of the the PSTN switch-off will impact the public sector. About Cambridge Management Consulting Cambridge Management Consulting (Cambridge MC) is an international consulting firm that helps companies of all sizes have a better impact on the world. Founded in Cambridge, UK, initially to help the start-up community, Cambridge MC has grown to over 200 consultants working on projects in 22 countries. Our capabilities focus on supporting the private and public sector with their people, process and digital technology challenges. What makes Cambridge Management Consulting unique is that it doesn’t employ consultants—only senior executives with real industry or government experience and the skills to advise their clients from a place of true credibility. Our team strives to have a highly positive impact on all the organisations they serve. We are confident there is no business or enterprise that we cannot help transform for the better. Cambridge Management Consulting has offices or legal entities in Cambridge, London, New York, Paris, Dubai, Tel Aviv, Singapore and Helsinki, with further expansion planned in the near future. For more information, visit cambridgemc.com . About Trustmarque Trustmarque is a leading provider of technology solutions, helping organisations across sectors optimise their IT infrastructure and achieve digital transformation. With decades of expertise and a commitment to customer success, Trustmarque delivers solutions that drive efficiency, security, and growth. For more information visit their website: trustmarque.com

BT has recently announced an extension to the Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN) switch-off in the UK. The previous deadline of December 2025 has been postponed to 31 January 2027. Given the lack of a national plan or central funding for the necessary infrastructure upgrades, responsibilities for welfare and safety will impact at a local level on councils, the NHS and healthcare services, social housing, fire services, and third sector organisations (charities and community groups). If these upgrades do not get funded and planned in detail (and if alternative digital solutions are not adequately tested under real scenarios) then emergency services could fail at a critical moment, putting vulnerable people at risk. The PSTN switch-off will impact five key areas; read below for more information on these. Vulnerable Citizens & Healthcare Communications technology has become vital in care home settings, which rely on technology such as fall alarms to ensure the wellbeing of their residents. Currently, in the UK, there are around 25,000 sheltered housing schemes, and an estimated 90% of them are reliant on analogue connections – for both admin and security – that will need to be transitioned onto an IP solution for continuity. This speaks to concerns across the healthcare industry more widely, which is currently characterised as a ‘Frankenstein estate’ of different telephony systems and technologies, suffering from inefficiencies, security vulnerability, and fragmented communication as a result. Across 56 NHS Trusts which took part in a Freedom of Information request by Maintel, they uncovered up to 10,315 PSTN/ISDN lines installed. Not only this, but 44% of these Trusts have admitted that they have no strategy in place for the PSTN switch-off This poses several risks and dangers following the switch-off if these Trusts do not plan accordingly. Disruptions to operations may seem resolvable to a smaller, private entity, but the impact on the healthcare industry to essential mechanisms which rely on traditional phone lines such as the emergency services will be critical. This will be compounded by a litany of administrative burdens which will divert time and resources away from patient care. Building Alarms & Security Unless fitted with an IP-based signalling solution, the majority of alarms and security systems – including intruder alarms, fire alarms, personal alarms, and CCTV – rely on signal transmission to an Alarm Receiving Centre (ARC) via the legacy PSTN network. This means that, once the switch-off takes effect, older and outdated alarm systems which have not been upgraded will no longer be able to transmit vital signals. This makes the PSTN switch-off, and planning for a proper transition, a matter of public safety. In 2019, there were nearly three million PSTN-connected intruder alarms across the UK, meaning that a lot of national infrastructure will be at risk after the switch off – both to intrusion, and fire. Transport Infrastructure On a day-to-day basis, the PSTN switch off has the potential to create severe disruption throughout public spaces due to its monopoly on transport infrastructure. A spokesman for Transport for London explained that of their nearly 6.5k sets of traffic lights, 1k still use remote monitors relying on PSTN technology. This issue isn’t just contained to London, nor traffic lights. Throughout the UK, a lack of migration plan past the switch-off could mean inadequate replacement of bus stops, EV charging hubs, travel card technology, and roadside telephones, all of which utilise PSTN technology to a certain extent. Facility Monitoring It is not just transport infrastructure that threatens to cause disruption if not properly transitioned, as the same monitoring technology leveraged for traffic lights and security systems is also used to monitor facilities and their utilities. As of 2022, the water industry relied on around 25,000 PSTN lines to complete critical services such as monitoring water levels, managing flood and stormwater, and treatment works. Furthermore, 43,000 lines were utilised to monitor gas pressure and electricity supply. Office & Depot Telephony Although the effect to analogue and landline phone lines introduced by the PSTN switch-off may be obvious (if not, read another of our articles on the stop sell), its impact on other telephony technology present throughout the public sector may be unconsidered. For example, though their use has been declining since its introduction in the 1980s, fax machines are still utilised by certain organisations for their apparent heightened security and reliability compared to digital alternatives. Furthermore, until recently two of the UK’s telephony providers were duty bound to support fax on their networks within the Universal Service Obligation (USO). This was changed with the announcement of the PSTN switch-off. Local businesses and other organisations comprise a key demographic of the public sector, however all entities regardless of industry or sector may still be utilising fax or landline phones, which need to be replaced before the switch-off in order to maintain key operations. How the Public Sector Should Respond Given the lack of a national plan or central funding for the necessary infrastructure upgrades, responsibilities for welfare and safety will impact at a local level on councils, the NHS and healthcare services, social housing, fire services, and third sector organisations. If these upgrades do not get funded and planned in detail, then the technology and services detailed in this article could fail at a critical moment, putting vulnerable people at risk. Funding & Planning: Councils will need to work with hospitals, schools, and other public bodies, alongside Communication Providers (CPs), to share resources, overcome common problems, and model future costs. Protecting the Vulnerable: Ofcom has ruled the following: ‘If you are dependent on your landline phone – for example, if you don’t have a mobile phone or don’t have mobile signal at your home – your provider must offer you a solution to make sure you can contact the emergency services when a power cut occurs. For example, a mobile phone (if you have signal), or a battery back-up unit for your landline phone. This solution should be provided free of charge to people who are dependent on their landline.’ Continuity of Public Services: Understand how the PSTN supports the services offered in the local community, and work with local groups and advisory boards to ensure there are communication strategies and ways to share resources. Also, make it clear that migrated services must be tested and comply with current regulations. Infrastructure Development: Ensuring adequate internet infrastructure is a key responsibility of local councils. They need to work with internet service providers (ISPs) to enhance connectivity, particularly in rural and underserved areas, to support new IP-based communication systems. Awareness: Unlike the shift to digital TV, which was government-initiated, the phase-out of the PSTN is industry-driven because the network is privately owned. Consequently, it is unlikely that there will be a government-sponsored national campaign to spread awareness of these changes and the risks involved. It therefore falls to local authorities, in conjunction with CPs and local groups, to try and disseminate this information to their communities, and in particular to vulnerable people. How We Can Help Our Public Sector and PSTN teams can help local councils and other public bodies by providing strategy, financial planning, procurement, and project management services as and when you need them. Get in touch with Craig Cheney, Managing Partner and lead for Public & Education, to discuss a range of services which might suit your needs: ccheney@cambridgemc.com . Terminology PSTN: Public Switched Telephone Network - a complex network of copper wires, switching centres, and other infrastructure that has been the backbone of the UK's telephony network since Victorian times. VoIP: Voice Over Internet Protocol - a technology that allows people to make voice calls using an internet-based communications technology. By converting voice signals into digital data packets, VoIP can transmit conversations over broadband connections and across the internet. Digital Voice: refers to BT's specific VoIP service or more generally to any service that transmits voice over your broadband connection. Confusingly, VoIP, IP and Digital Voice are often used interchangeably. CP: Communication Provider - an organisation, either private or public, that offers telecommunications services or a mix of information, media, content, entertainment, and application services over networks. ISDN: Integrated Services Digital Network - a set of communication standards that allow for the digital transmission of voice, video, data and other services over the PSTN network. ADSL: Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line - allows for high-speed data transmission over existing copper lines. ADSL is a type of digital subscriber line (DSL) technology that is typically provided from a telephone exchange enabling broadband internet access, video-on-demand, and LAN services. The service is asymmetric in that the broadband speed profile to the premise is higher than that from the premise. Maximum download speeds are in the order of 20Mbit/s (Megabits per second). VDSL: Very high speed Digital Subscriber Line - a form of DSL technology primarily delivered from street side cabinets delivering very high-speed data rates over existing copper lines. Often referred to as Fibre To The Cabinet (FTTC). VDSL is an asymmetric service, with superior performance when compared to ADSL technologies. Maximum download speeds are in the order of 80Mbit/s. FTTP: Fibre To The Premises - a fibre connection from a premises to a fibre exchange. Offers superior performance when compared to DSL technologies. Services can be symmetric or asymmetric. Maximum speeds are in the order of multiple Gbit/s (Gigabits per second). Useful Links A Councillors Guide to Project Gigabit: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/a-councillors-guide-to-project-gigabit https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/gigabit-broadband-voucher-scheme-information Gigabit Voucher Scheme Eligibility Checker: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/gigabit-broadband-voucher-scheme-information Project Gigabit government webpage: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/project-gigabit-uk-gigabit-programme Virgin O2 guide to the Switchover: https://www.damianhinds.com/sites/www.damianhinds.com/files/2023-10/23%2010%2030%20Virgin%20Digital%20Voice%20Switchover%20MP%20Guide.pdf Ofcom guide to moving your landline to digital: https://www.ofcom.org.uk/phones-telecoms-and-internet/advice-for-consumers/future-of-landline-calls#:~:text=If%20you%20don%27t%20have%20a%20broadband%20connection%2C%20your%20provider,take%20up%20a%20broadband%20service BT Guide: How the PSTN Switch Off will Affect my Business: https://business.bt.com/insights/what-is-ip-telephony-pstn-switch-off/ A guide to digital voice: https://www.damianhinds.com/sites/www.damianhinds.com/files/2023-10/23%2010%2030%20A%20guide%20to%20Digital%20Voice%20BT%27s%20new%20home%20phone%20service.pdf Telecare stakeholder action plan: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/telecare-stakeholder-action-plan-analogue-to-digital-switchover Shared Rural Network: https://srn.org.uk/about/ Digital Poverty Alliance: https://digitalpovertyalliance.org/

The Satellite Industry is in a Period of Momentous Transformation The satellite industry is going through a period of momentous transformation with the emergence of new entrants and new technologies in every segment of the value chain. For decades satellite communications have been dominated by a handful of GEO satellite manufacturers, satellite operators and ground segment manufacturers with almost a cottage-industry-like network of service providers and value-added manufacturers (BUCs, LNBs and antennas). This has been a linear and predictable business model with entirely proprietary technologies. We now see the emergence of new Non-Geostationary Orbit (NGSO), or multi orbit players in LEO, MEO and HEO building completely vertically integrated systems. This shift has significantly driven down capacity pricing: the price of satellite bandwidth for data services has dropped 77% over five years according to analysts Novaspace, formerly known as Euroconsult. Starlink, as the first to market, is making waves by disrupting market sectors historically monopolised by the established GEO players such as maritime, aero and enterprise connectivity. Two years ago, the industry would have dismissed Starlink's impact on maritime or aero connectivity segments. The sentiment was that Starlink has ‘no CIR’ (Committed Information Rate) and therefore would not be considered ‘reliable’ for mobile or critical communications. This notion has since been overturned and the naysayers have paid a price with a significant impact to revenues in maritime—the cruise industry in particular—with Starlink now making inroads into aviation and previously inviolable segments like defence. Starlink has also revolutionised satellite manufacturing, leveraging new technologies such as 3D printing to mass-produce satellites at a phenomenal rate, reducing costs to between $250,000 and $500,000 per satellite. The race is on, with Elon Musk’s Starlink trying to acquire as many subscribers as possible before the challengers like Amazon's Kuiper and Telesat's Lightspeed emerge. Forrester's Digital has predicted that SpaceX’s Starlink broadband-by-satellite system is likely to end 2025 with around 8 million customers (it ended 2024 with approximately 5 million), a remarkable growth rate when you consider that each of the leading GEO satellite operators typically have around 25,000 enterprise VSAT terminals activated. We also see the emergence of Small Sat and MicroGEO manufacturers disrupting traditional commercial models with innovations like satellite-as-a-service. This technology provides additional or targeted capacity for defence and government in hotspot areas. Twenty-five years ago, building and launching a satellite would have cost at least two billion USD. Now we see them being built and launched at a fraction of that cost (circa $60 million), reducing the price per gigabit equal to or below fibre. Starlink has also been fundamental to reducing launch costs. In 1981, launch costs were $147k per kilogram of payload. Starlink’s current generation of rockets have brought this down to $2300 and with the introduction of their new Starship rocket, Elon Musk is talking about a price as low as $100 per kilogram. This scale of reduction in launch costs is driving the democratisation of space by allowing new use cases for space to emerge. The satellite industry is also seeing unprecedented consolidation, coopetition and collaboration, creating a range of new offers to consumers, enterprise and governments. Significant transactions include: In April 2024, SES announced its intention to acquire rival Intelsat. If and when this completes, it will be a significant transaction In May 2023, Viasat completed its acquisition of Inmarsat In October 2023, Eutelsat and OneWeb completed their merger transaction In March 2024, prior to the SES announcement, Intelsat extended its partnership with competitor Eutelsat-OneWeb for LEO services.

The Environmental Trade-off in Digital Infrastructure Development Digital development presents a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it boosts productivity through remote work, AI, and automation, with the potential to lift billions out of poverty. Yet, at the same time, the rapid growth of infrastructure required to support these developments will need a corresponding growth in decarbonisation to avoid a climate catastrophe. The German Advisory Council on Global Change highlights this contradiction: “uncontrolled digital change threatens to undermine the important foundations of our democracies” [1] . This article takes an in-depth look at how global institutions push the mantra of ‘digitisation’ as a developmental priority for nations while failing to adequately acknowledge the huge climate impact of this enterprise. This obscuring of consequences eases the way for a rapid extension of infrastructure that consumes billions of gallons of non-renewable resources annually. In this article, I suggest that detailed modelling and forecasting are one of the major pillars needed to address this dichotomy. I will set out an approach and resources for modelling the digital demand to design a more predictive approach to digital infrastructure builds. The Environmental Impact of a Data Explosion The amount of data flowing over global digital infrastructure has exploded 300-fold over the last 10 years [2] , with the next 20 years expected to see faster-paced growth on the back of the continued digitisation of life and entertainment, as well as from huge numbers of people in developing countries coming online for the first time. This explosion is a good thing—the UN’s Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 9 aims to provide universal and affordable access to the internet by 2030 [3] . Access to the internet and digital services strongly correlates with improvements in education, healthcare and women’s empowerment. As increasing numbers of people come online, and the scale of their data use grows, a variety of digital infrastructure will need to be built or scaled up if the digital ambitions of countries and trading blocks are to be realised. Connectivity is one part of the solution—increased coverage of broadband, mobile and satellite will undoubtedly support these targets. But, ultimately, all that data traffic needs a destination point, in the form of data centres, which, unfortunately, require vast sums of power. In the USA, data centres are expected to consume 380TWh of electricity by 2027 [4] , almost 9% of the country’s total consumption. Ireland faces an even larger burden with digital infrastructure expected to consume 33% of the country’s total electricity by 2026 [5] , and potentially 70% of the country’s electricity by 2030 [6] . Ireland and the USA have reliable national power grids, but this is not necessarily the case in developing countries. In Nigeria, data centres and mobile towers rely heavily on diesel generators, burning nearly a billion litres of diesel annually. This is a country where the average annual mobile data traffic per subscription is only 6GB per year [7] , just over 0.1% of the average traffic from a UK subscriber. To achieve universal internet access for a population that is estimated to cross the 300 million threshold by 2036 will require an exponential growth in digital infrastructure. If Nigeria remained dependent on diesel generators, and data consumption on a per-person basis reaches the UK’s level of data traffic, then the country would consume 9 trillion litres of diesel a year—over 100 times the amount of diesel consumed by the entire world in 2022 [8] . This single event would create a climate catastrophe—even if the UK, France, Germany, Spain and the Nordics reduced their CO2 emissions to zero, this would offset less than half of this increase. This is of course the worst-case scenario. Grid infrastructure has developed across West Africa and there are a multitude of projects which are building green energy infrastructure. But there has yet to be a major MNO, TowerCo or data centre company which has shown significant year-on-year reductions in emissions. It is unjust to expect developing nations to slow down or halt their digitisation while developed countries reap the benefits of a digitised economy. Instead, alternative approaches to managing global emissions are needed. And this is where predictive analytics become a crucial tool for forecasting future demand. These tools and models will support the development of alternative strategies for power generation and implement methods to reduce emissions from digital infrastructure. A predictive tool that models national network traffic growth and compares it to projected digital infrastructure expansion will help identify underserved areas early, enabling better planning of digital and power infrastructure. Early planning allows for the integration of renewable energy, natural cooling solutions, and partnerships with sustainability experts to reduce emissions. Creating the Model: Traffic vs Digital Infrastructure To address these challenges, David Jones, an Associate of Cambridge Management Consulting, has developed a comprehensive model that examines global internet traffic on a country-by-country basis and compares it to existing and planned digital infrastructure within those countries. This model considers several factors: Population Growth: Increasing numbers of internet users Economic Growth: Rising wealth levels leading to more internet usage Internet Penetration: A growing proportion of each country’s population getting online Usage Patterns: Moving towards video transmission over the internet significantly increasing traffic B2B and M2M Traffic: Business-to-business and machine-to-machine Internet traffic growth This model projects internet traffic growth over the next 20 years, if data traffic growth follows a logarithmic curve, increasing at a decreasing rate. In Germany and other developed nations, the rate of traffic growth slows once it reaches a certain threshold, as there is a natural limit to how much HD video a person can consume. By comparing these projections with a database of over 10,000 data centres, including locations and power consumption, it is possible to identify regions with underdeveloped or overdeveloped digital infrastructure. Note: This model does not account for the growth in generative AI, which adds further demand on a strained digital infrastructure. For more information on this subject, see our recent article: Building an AI-ready infrastructure . Initial Results When we run this model and compare countries, what immediately becomes clear is the difference in scale between the growth of digital infrastructure and internet traffic. Ireland’s digital infrastructure is increasing at a rate faster than its internet traffic, while in countries like Bangladesh and Algeria internet usage is growing ten times faster than the digital infrastructure that supports it. David has modelled 76 countries and will be completing another 50 over the next few months. So far, the CAGR of internet traffic is around 30%, and the CAGR of data centres is around 12%. What’s clear from this graph is how the difference in growth rates compounds over time, and that as the years progress the gap between traffic and infrastructure widens. This shows that over time the availability of infrastructure will become a massive limiting factor to digital experience. Eventually, the lack of adequate infrastructure may even prevent citizens from accessing essential internet services.

In a previous article, Building AI-ready Infrastructure, we looked at the challenges that face the builders of digital infrastructure to create the massive engines that will power the ‘AI Revolution’ – in particular, the mega-data centres that will host the training systems used in Generative AI platforms like ChatGPT.  Most of the attention in the data centre industry is on these monsters, but there is more to it that we need to consider. This article looks at the other uses, applications, and implications of AI, and the infrastructure required to maintain them. The Growth of Industrial AI There are many flavours of AI, and although much of the current focus is on Generative AI, commercial applications use all sorts of other techniques to get the benefits that AI can offer. Indeed, there are some AI experts who think that too much emphasis is being given to the prominent large language models, and that the market will require a more diverse model for deploying infrastructure that will support real-world applications. There are many examples of industrial and manufacturing applications using AI already to optimise, for example, production-line efficiency in factories. These systems take data from sensors and devices (e.g. cameras), and then control the manufacturing processes in real time to improve efficiency, or to reduce the use of raw ingredients – a great example being the use of specialist glues in the automobile industry for sticking windscreens to car bodies – an AI platform has been in use to reduce the amount of glue used without compromising the efficacy of the bond. This may sound, trivial but the quantities used globally mean that even small proportional savings can amount to huge monetary savings. This type of application, used across multiple industries, has enormous potential for saving precious resources (or money), and many industries have been using these techniques for years. However, it is mostly the large manufacturers and processing companies that have been able to exploit this. Deploying this type of system can be expensive and usually entails situating a lot of processing power close to the production line. This excludes smaller enterprises from being able to take advantage as the barrier to entry is too high and involves maintaining IT kit that is expensive and difficult to look after.